Commentaries

The 2012 Election Polls in Mali May be in Trouble

Note this recent news out of sub-Saharan Africa:

"Gaddafi’s Influence in Mali’s Coup"

By Thomas Fessy BBC News, West Africa correspondent

22 March 2012 last updated at 16:36 ET

BBC NEWS AFRICA

“It did not take long for the Libyan conflict to spill over borders in the Sahel region – and now Mali seems to have paid the highest price so far following a coup by disgruntled soldiers.”

“The trouble began when hundreds of Malian combatants who had fought to defend the late Libyan leader, Muammar Gaddafi, fled back home with weapons at the end of last year and formed the most powerful Tuareg-led rebel group the region has known – the Azawad National Liberation Movement (MNLA).”

For the full story: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-17481114

“Last week’s coup happened in one of the few established democracies in the troubled western half of the African continent.”

For the full story: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/mar/29/airport-demonstration-turns-4-african-presidents-a/

“Instability in the Western Region of sub-Saharan Africa”

On Friday morning March 23rd, I received a phone call from an adviser to Yeah Samake, the Mayor of Ouelessebougou, who is running for President of Mali in 2012. The frantic caller stated that there had been a coup d’ etat in Bamako, the capital of Mali. Two Hinckley Institute interns helping in the campaign were caught in the crossfire. They were scared and wanted to get them out of Mali. I immediately called the State Department Operations Center. Soon we were on the phone with a senior Consular Officer, and the Duty Officer at the U.S. Embassy in Bamako. While on the call they verified through passport search data that both students were in the system. However I was informed the airport was shut down and the borders had been sealed. So the immediate concern was finding them a safe place to stay.

As it turned out they were at Yeah Samake’s apartment in Bamako, where they were temporarily safe. Text messages from the students indicated there was substantial gunfire around them. I was informed a few hours later that the students were taken to a safe environment, a hotel near the airport. Meanwhile Samake was attempting to help resolve the government takeover by meeting with former officials, political opposition leaders, and the junta to keep the democratic election process on track, and bring stability back to Mail. Reportedly the airport and borders reopened on March 29th, allowing the interns to leave the country.

The election polls were scheduled for April 29, 2012. President Amadou Toumani Toure who served two terms was not seeking a third. Toure was the leader of the last coup twenty years earlier, when he was a general in the army. Civilian rule followed, with Toure came back to power through the democratic election process in 2002.

On March 21st, Amadou Sanogo an army captain, supported by young officers and soldiers took control of the government. “President Amadou Toumani Toure hasn’t been active in tackling drug trafficking and al-Qaeda fighters, and the emergence of new rebel movements only added to the soldiers’ frustration. The Libyan crisis didn’t cause this coup but certainly revealed the malaise felt within the army,” said Malian newspaper columnist Adam Thiam.

The coup was about a lack of arms and government support to fight the Tuareg rebels who controlled parts of the northern region, including Timbuktu, Kidal and Gao, towns which stretch across the vast desert area. They were well armed, and able to challenge the Malian military; had complained for a long time of being marginalized by the government, which resulted in a number of rebellions over the years. Their separatist goals have also challenged the Toure government for some time.

“Some Malian officials have blamed NATO for the crisis in the north after it helped Libyan insurgents topple Col Gaddafi”. Heavy weaponry and arsenals left over from the Libyan war were not protected and fell into the hands of splinter rebel groups in Libya, al-Qaeda, and the Tuareg fighters going back home. What is not known is whether the Tuareg rebels will unite with al-Qaeda in an attempt to take control of large sections of northern Mali. Libyan arms have also found their way into Niger, Mauritania, and Chad. Al-Qaeda which had a presence in the northern desert region has kidnapped westerners, and held them for ransom.

Yeah Samake is a decent and capable presidential candidate—educated and articulate–with high integrity. If the military truly wants to go back to civilian rule, they could not find a better candidate. Hope is that Amadou Sanogo will choose the path of democracy, and orders the soldiers back to their barracks, allowing the election process to go forward as planned.

Several West African countries have discussed providing arms and equipment to the Malian military, to help subdue the Tuareg rebels in the north. Such a military action, at best, is a short term solution, since the instability in the north will continue. The long term solution is to include the Tuareg society into the Mali governing process. Ultimately the people will need hope for a better life; food on the table; jobs; education for their children; and health care services in the villages. All of these aspects are needed, if the government is to stop al-Qaeda from making inroads. “The Tuareg Diaspora feels forgotten”.

It is important for Captain Amadou Sanogo to allow the country to immediately get back to civilian rule, and allow the elections to take place on April 29, 2012. Thereafter, negotiations should be held with the Tuareg society, so that they may participate in the new government. Any military action, as has been suggested, will only create more instability, and not lead to a long lasting peaceful solution.

"Yeah Samake Runs for President of Mali"

Posted on my Website – January 11, 2012

“In 2011, I had the pleasure of meeting Yeah Samake, Mayor of Ouelessebougou, the African sister city of Salt Lake City, who is running for President of Mali in 2012. I was impressed with this young man’s vision for his country Mali. He is a breath of fresh air for this very poor state located in the western region of sub-Saharan Africa”.